Imagine a two-horse race where both horses are of equal ability, and nothing separates them; the law of probability dictates each horse’s chance of winning is 50%, like a coin flip. No matter how many times we re-run the race, that average winning distribution is 50%. malaysia gambling
Now, why am I telling you this?
1. “Probability” or “Implied Chance.”
Because at the core of every successful sports betting strategy, there’s “Probability” or “Implied Chance”. Knowing the probability is the most accurate way to gauge if betting odds are valuable or not.
And to be successful, you need value to win, and it doesn’t matter if you choose the right horse four times out of 5 in the example if you weren’t getting value.
The short-term results would be random distribution, but over the long term, you’d lose.
It’s a fact that true payout is in line with probability. This is exactly why bookmakers make so much money, simple maths. They take the probability of something happening, convert the price into betting odds, and then offer you a lower one.
So, to have a successfulbetting strategy, you must do the complete opposite; it’s the only thing that works.
This, of course, leads us to the most important question how do you identify value?
Firstly, you need to know the implied chance of an outcome or true odds.
But, this can be a problem as it’s a complicated task. So, look at the betting exchanges close to the start. It is the closest indicator to true odds you’ll find, especially when you learn how to factor in trading volumes.
2. Wisdom Of The Crowd
The reason these Sports Betting strategies work is simple, “Wisdom of the crowd”- A well-documented phenomenon based on the law of averages.
Being close to the “start event” is also important as it provides the most efficient result with a larger data sample. This is only the first part, though, as we’ll give you a good indication of the “true price”, you need to find a bigger price on that outcome.
By planning this kind of sports betting strategy, you’ll massively increase the amount you win; the more you do it, the more you’ll win.
A quick example to illustrate that would be if your selections got a 25% chance of winning, the odds should be 4.0; if you get the 20% price even though your bet has a 25% chance of winning, that’s a 5 percent profit margin over the long term.
So if you bet 10k, a 4.0 over a hundred sample bets, you’re more than likely to break even with 25 winning bets of 40k total in a 1000k return which is, of course, the same amount you staked in the first place 100 bets a 10k now.
If we take the same sample and add in our 5% margin, the result is as follows- 10k at 5.0 over 100 bets, you get 25 winning bets of 50k total in return for 1,250k, but you need to remember you only risked that same 1000k in the previous example.It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that’s 250k value for you.
But that’s not all, and there’s more to maximizing profit which is where it gets really interesting in Sports Betting.
So, once you know the true price and find one of value, we move to stake because that’s another part of the puzzle.